Mathematical modelling as an element of planning rail transport strategies

Effective planning and optimization of rail transport operations depends on effective and reliable forecasting of demand. The results of transport performance forecasts usually differ from measured values because the mathematical models used are inadequate. In response to this applicative need, we report the results of a study whose goal was to develop, on the basis of historical data, an effective mathematical model of rail passenger transport performance that would allow to make reliable forecasts of future demand for this service. Several models dedicated to this type of empirical data were proposed and selection criteria were established. The models used in the study are: the seasonal naive model, the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model, the exponential smoothing state space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trigonometric trend and seasonal components (TBATS) model, and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The proposed time series identification and forecasting methods are dedicated to the processing of time series data with trend and seasonality. Then, the best model was identified and its accuracy and effectiveness were assessed. It was noticed that investigated time series is characterized by strong seasonality and an upward trend. This information is important for planning a development strategy for rail passenger transport, because it shows that additional investments and engagement in the development of both transport infrastructure and superstructure are required to meet the existing demand. Finally, a forecast of transport performance in sequential periods of time was presented. Such forecast may significantly improve the system of scheduling train journeys and determining the level of demand for rolling stock depending on the season and the annual rise in passenger numbers, increasing the effectiveness of management of rail transport

Systems engineering: availability and reliability

Current trends in Industry 4 [...

Reasons for delay in treatment of breast cancer detected due to breast self-examination in women from the Lubelskie Region

Objectives: A delay in diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer patients is observed despite access to modern diagnostic methods. The aim of the study was to evaluate time between the first symptoms of breast cancer and treatment commencement, as well as to analyze reasons for the delay. Materials and methods: The research was conducted on 260 breast cancer patients treated at the Oncology Center in Lublin between 2008 and 2011. ‘Patient delay’ was defined as the time gap of >3 months between first symptoms of cancer and the doctor’s appointment and ‘system delay’ as the time gap of >1 month between the first medical consultation and commencement of treatment. Results: Mean patient delay was 32.2 ± 63.8 weeks. The main reasons were: disregard of symptoms (51%) and fear of being diagnosed with cancer (48%). Factors which significantly influenced the length of patient delay included: age >65 years, non-regular gynecologic care, lack of prior cancer screening and lack of family history of breast cancer. Mean system delay was 3.1 ± 2.9 weeks. Tumors < 5cm in diameter and clinical presentation other than a tumor, significantly influenced the system delay. Conclusions: A significant delay in diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer remains to be noted. Delay in seeking medical help was observed in 20% of the patients, whereas the referral was delayed due to system fault in 38% of the cases. Contrary to popular belief, patient delay (mean 32.2 ± 63.8 weeks) is 10 times longer than system delay (3.1 ± 2.9 weeks), suggesting an urgent need for further education of the general public and creating more accessible medical care

PROBLEMY WSPOMAGANIA DECYZJI W SYSTEMACH UTRZYMANIA RUCHU

The paper proposes problems with development of a model of adaptive algorithm for maintenance decision support system which – depending on the changing parameters of residual processes – selects an adequate mathematical model based on predictive and informative criteria. The proposed model additionally contains a maintenance decision-related part which – based on the information about actions taken by maintenance services – generates a constrained optimal time interval for performing the necessary maintenance work.W artykule przedstawiono problemy związane z opracowaniem modelu adaptacyjnego algorytmu wspomagania decyzji w systemie utrzymania ruchu, który w zależności od zmieniających się parametrów procesów resztkowych, dobiera odpowiedni model matematyczny wyznaczony przez kryteria predykcyjne i informacyjne. Proponowany model zawiera dodatkowo część decyzyjną, która na podstawie informacji skupiających się na obszarze działań Służb Utrzymania Ruchu generuje zawężony optymalny przedział czasu, w którym konieczne jest przeprowadzenie konserwacji

The use of mathematical models describing the spread of Covid-19 in strategic state security management

Purpose: The security system of each country should be capable of identifying and eliminating potential threats. However, such events' variety and unpredictability make it impossible to be ready for each scenario, should one materialize. Situations posing a national security threat require that effective actions be undertaken, including risk prevention and mitigation of its effects. Decisions must be taken responsibly and competently. However, they also must be taken quickly, as time is a key factor in any emergency. Extreme caution must be exercised, as citizens' lives and health may depend on the strategic level decisions. Therefore, any instruments to support the decisions, enabling the best choices to be made, are very much desirable. Knowledge of the scale of the phenomenon and its evolution is particularly useful and important here. It is easier to fight an opponent knowing their strengths and potential. Design/Methodology/Approach: To know required, mathematical models may be constructed describing the phenomenon in question and its development over time. This paper presents and compares mathematical models describing the SARS-Cov-2 virus's evolution in four EU countries (Poland, Germany, Great Britain, and Italy). Findings: The ability to describe the evolution of the pandemic in mathematical terms and rely on the results of such modeling in strategic state security management. The results obtained were compared with the actions taken in the countries in question. Practical Implications: Furthermore, the importance of reliable information in making crucial decisions on the national level and achieving the appropriate degree of citizen security was emphasized.peer-reviewe

New therapeutic approaches in the treatment of node-positive cervical cancer patients based on molecular targets: a systematic review

Cervical uterine cancer is the second most frequent female cancer worldwide and a substantial burden for low-income societies and the patients themselves. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of metastasis permits the development of therapies that limit tumor progression, as well as providing health and social benefits. Pathomorphology is still the basis of research and a reference standard for molecular analysis. The aim of our study was to research and critically evaluate clinical trials that use new oncological approaches for node-positive cervical cancer to gain an insight into the molecular mechanisms of tumor metastasis. Inclusion criteria: node-positive disease at baseline; at least a first phase clinical study comprising adult female patients; novel clinical approach (e.g., radiotherapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy, vaccines, radiosurgery); histologic measurement of treatment efficacy (preferably lymph node ultrastaging); and publications in English language only. Information sources: US Clinical trials registry, EU Clinical trials register, ISRCTN registry, and Ovid, EBSCO and Cochrane Collaboration databases. Access dates: from January 2010 to April 2018. Exclusions: Abstracts that did not meet the inclusion criteria or with unreliable data. We collected complete data (e.g., the entire publication associated with included abstracts, heterogeneity examination of individual studies, and validity measurement of the statistical methods used). Results were analyzed in relation to the most recent understanding of the pathogenesis of cervical cancer metastasis. We proposed a possible direction for drug treatment of epithelial tumors based on the mechanisms of metastasis

Wpływ kwasu retinowego na komórki pheochromocytoma

Introduction: Retinoic acid is a regulator of gene expression which, by binding to its nuclear receptor, determines the degree of differentiation in multiple cancer cell types. On the basis of this capability it was introduced, e.g. in the therapy of neuroblastoma. In cells derived from neural crest, such as neuroblastoma cells, retinoic acid initiates differentiation into neurons. This substance acts in a similar way on a rat pheochromocytoma cell line PC12. The aim of our work was to examine the influence of retinoic acid on the phenotype of human pheochromocytoma cells in primary culture. Material and methods: Observations were made on two primary cultures isolated from human pheochromocytoma. Cells were grown in RPMI1640 medium supplemented with 10% foetal bovine serum. Subsequently, the cultures were treated with 100 mMol retinoic acid for three-days. An evaluation of the phenotype change was performed by estimating the expression levels of F-actin, MAP-2 protein, and chromogranin, with the use of a confocal microscopy. Results: The introduction of retinoic acid into the culture caused an increase in the F-actin level and its redistribution in the form of stress fibers. Simultaneously, the cells changed their shape, generating more processes. No change was detected in the expression level of neuroendocrine markers: MAP-2 and chromogranin. Conclusions: Retinoic acid appears to have an influence on some phenotype parameters of human pheochromocytoma cells. Further work is needed to determine the molecular mechanisms of this process, and to evaluate thoroughly the benefits of introducing retinoic acid into therapy of pheochromocytoma tumors.Wstęp: Kwas retinowy jest regulatorem ekspresji genów, który działając poprzez receptor jądrowy, wpływa na stopień zróżnicowania wielu typów komórek nowotworowych. Właściwości te stały się podstawą zastosowania go w onkologii, m.in. w terapii neuroblastoma. W komórkach pochodzących z grzebienia nerwowego, takich jak komórki neuroblastoma, kwas retinowy uruchamia proces różnicowania w kierunku neuronów. Substancja ta działa w sposób zbliżony również na komórki szczurzej linii pheochromocytoma (PC12). Celem pracy było zbadanie wpływu kwasu retinowego na cechy fenotypowe ludzkich komórek pheochromocytoma w warunkach hodowli pierwotnej. Materiał i metody: Badania przeprowadzono na dwóch hodowlach pierwotnych wyprowadzonych z ludzkich guzów pheochromocytoma. Komórki hodowano w pożywce RPMI1640 z dodatkiem 10-procentowej surowicy bydlęcej, a następnie poddane działaniu kwasu retinowego, w stężeniu 100 mM przez 3 dni. Oceny fenotypu dokonano poprzez badanie ekspresji F-aktyny, białka MAP-2 (microtubule-associated protein-2, marker neuronalny), i chromograniny (marker neuroendokrynny), z detekcją przy u&iquest;yciu mikroskopu konfokalnego. Wyniki: Działanie kwasem retinowym spowodowało zwiększenie zawartości F-aktyny i jej redystrybucję w formie włókien naprężeniowych, co znalazło odzwierciedlenie w zmianie kształtu komórek, które utworzyły więcej wypustek. Nie stwierdzono zmian w poziomie ekspresji markerów neuroendokrynnych: MAP-2 i chromograniny. Wnioski: Kwas retinowy prawdopodobnie wpływa na niektóre parametry fenotypowe ludzkich komórek pheochromocytoma. Konieczne jest przeprowadzenie dalszych badań w celu wyjaśnienia mechanizmów molekularnych tego zjawiska oraz głębszej oceny perspektyw zastosowania kwasu retinowego w leczeniu guza chromochłonnego

Rola obrońcy węzła w procesach małżeńskich

Obrońca węzła pełni znaczącą rolę w kanonicznych procesach małżeńskich. Jego zadaniem jest reprezentowanie Kościoła i stanie na straży bonum publicum, którym jest nierozerwalność ważnego węzła małżeńskiego. Z woli prawodawcy jest gwarantem poprawności zastosowania procedur sądowych i powinien przedstawiać wszystko, co w sposób rozumny przemawia za ważnością małżeństwa. Obecność defensora w proce-sach stała się jeszcze bardziej znaczącą po zmianach, które do prawa kanonicznego wprowadził papież Franciszek w Liście apostolskim motu proprio Mitis Iudex Dominus Iesus. Dotyczy to zwłaszcza jego zadań w kontekście odstąpienia przez prawodawcę od obowiązku apelacji po pozytywnym wyroku trybunału I instancji oraz w procesie skróconym przed biskupem diecezjalnym. Prawo apelacji i zaskarżania wyroku, które mu przysługuje, stanowi skuteczny środek ochronny przed wydaniem niesprawiedliwego wyroku.Defender of the bond acts a significant role in the canonical process of marriage. His task is representing the Church and protection of this kind the public good, which is indissolubility valid marriage bond. By the will of the legislator he is the guarantor of the correctness of the application of judicial procedures and he should present every-thing, what in the way of rational supports the validity of marriage. The presence of the defender in the process has become even more important after the changes to the canon law which were introduced by the pope Francis in the Apostolic Letter motu proprio Mitis Iudex Dominus Iesus (The Lord Jesus, Gentle Judge). This applies especially to some tasks of defenders in the context of the withdrawal of the legislator from the obligation to appeal after a positive judgment of the court of first instance and in the shorter and more streamlined process, judged personally by the diocesan bishop, for certain rare and exceptional cases. The defenders right to appeal and the appeal against the judgment is an effective preventive measure before issuing an unfair judgment

State supervision over religious instruction centres - an example of state administration in Zielona Gora and its activities toward the church organization in Gorzow Wielkopolski

Bezpośrednio po zakończeniu II wojny światowej władze komunistyczne przystąpiły do ograniczania wpływu Kościoła na środowisko szkolne. Pomimo zobowiązania do nieutrudniania nauczania religii w szkołach, podjętego w „Porozumieniu” z 1950 r., przystąpiły do zmniejszania godzin lekcji religii i usuwania katechetów. W związku z tym, już w roku szkolnym 1952/1953, Kościół przystąpił do organizowania punktów katechetycznych. Chwilowa zmiana nastąpiła na fali „odwilży” w roku 1956, kiedy to szkoły stały się na nowo miejscem nauczania religii. Stan ten trwał jednak tylko do roku 1961, bowiem wtedy wraz z ustawą z dnia 15 lipca ostatecznie usunięto katechezę ze szkoły, a wszelką działalność oświatowo – wychowawczą poddano nadzorowi Ministerstwa Oświaty. Na jej podstawie wydane zostało zarządzenie w sprawie prowadzenia punktów katechetycznych i instrukcja w sprawie ich rejestracji. Stały się one podstawą do uzurpowania sobie przez władze komunistyczne prawa do wizytowania i kontrolowania zajęć prowadzonych w punktach katechetycznych. W parafiach Kościoła gorzowskiego znajdujących się na terenie województwa zielonogórskiego władze wyznaniowe i oświatowe próbowały zmusić księży do podporządkowania się wydanym przepisom, jednak zdecydowana postawa Kurii gorzowskiej powodowała, że jedynie nieliczni księża rejestrowali punkty katechetyczny i pobierali wynagrodzenie za nauczanie religii. Również niewielu księży godziło się na wizytowanie lekcji religii odbywających się w pomieszczeniach kościelnych i składanie sprawozdań z nauczania. Widząc nieskuteczność zarówno działań administracyjnych, jak i bezprawnych nacisków polegających na zastraszaniu, szantażowaniu i karaniu księży nauczających w punktach katechetycznych, w połowie lat 70-tych władze państwowe praktycznie zrezygnowały z nadzoru nad punktami katechetycznymi, a w październiku 1981 r. uchyliły krzywdzące Kościół przepisy uznając przy tym, że katecheza parafialna jest wewnętrzną sprawą kościołów i związków wyznaniowych.Immediately after World War 2, the communist authorities began to curb the Church's influence on the educational environment. Despite the commitment not to obstruct religious education in schools, undertaken in the Church-State Agreement of 1950, the authorities decided to reduce the number of religion classes and expel the instructors. In response, already in the school year 1952/1953, the Church initiated the establishment of religious instruction centres. A temporary change occurred during the political 'thaw' in 1956, when religion was re-established as a school subject. This condition, however, lasted no longer than until 1961; according to the newly enacted law of 15 July 1961, religious instruction was ultimately removed from educational establishments, and the supervision over the entire educational activity was to be exercised by the Ministry of Education. The provisions of the new law provided for the management of religious instruction centres and instructed on their official registration. Consequently, the communist authorities were vested with special powers to visit and monitor the activities of such centres. In the parishes of the Gorzow Church located in the Zielona Gora region, the authorities responsible for handling denominational and educational affairs tried to make priests comply with the regulations, but the unyielding stance of the Gorzow Curia resulted in merely few priests registering their religious instruction classes and accepted remuneration for the teaching. Also, few priests consented to the authorities visiting religion classes held in the church premises and reporting on the instruction. Confronted with the ineffectiveness of both administrative action and unlawful pressure involving intimidation, blackmailing and punishing the priests conducting religion classes in the centres, in the mid-1970s, the authorities practically abandoned the control of such establishments, and in October 1981 repealed the unfair regulations recognizing that any religious instruction in parishes is an internal matter of churches and religious associations

Canonical preventive measures in the case of accusations of acts contra sextum Decalogi praeceptum against minors

The attitude of the ecclesiastical authority towards crimes „contra sextum” against children and adolescents committed by clergy should be characterized by faithful implementation of canonical norms indicated by both the general and particular legislator. Methods of responding to allegations of sexual misconduct against minors under canon law also include remedial measures. These are not a punishment in the strict sense of the word, as thesecan be applied at various stages of the proceedings against the accused. These include, first of all, dismissal, the tasks and ofices of the Church, the order or prohibition of staying in a place or territory, the prohibition of public participation in the Eucharist, and their purpose is to prevent scandal, protect the freedom of witnesses and guarantee justice. These should be imposed in the form of a written order. These are administered by the ordinary. These may change in the course of the proceedings, these should be annulled when the reason for their imposition ceases to exist, but they always cease at the end of the criminal or administrative-criminal trial. In applying them, the Church superior must take into account both the interests of the alleged victims and their relatives and the rights of the accused.Postawa władzy kościelnej wobec przestępstw contra sextum popełnianych przez duchownych wobec dzieci i młodzieży, powinna charakteryzować się wiernym realizowaniem norm kanonicznych, wskazanych zarówno przez prawodawcę powszechnego, jak i partykularnego. Do przewidzianych przez prawo kanoniczne sposobów reagowania na oskarżenia o czyny nierządne z osobami małoletnimi, należy zaliczyć również środki zapobiegawcze. Nie są one karą w ścisłym tego słowa znaczeniu, bowiem mogą być stosowane na różnych etapach postępowania wobec oskarżonego. Należą do nich przede wszystkim: oddalenie od posługi, zadań i urzędów kościelnych, nakaz lub zakaz przebywania na jakimś miejscu lub terytorium oraz zakaz publicznego uczestnictwa w Eucharystii. Ich celem jest zapobieżenie zgorszeniu, ochrona wolności świadków i zagwarantowanie sprawiedliwości. Powinny być nakładane w formie pisemnego nakazu. Ich dysponentem jest ordynariusz. Mogą być zmieniane w trakcie trwania postępowania, należy je odwołać, gdy ustanie przyczyna ich nałożenia, zawsze natomiast ustają wraz z zakończeniem procesu karnego lub postępowania karnoadministracyjnego. Przy ich stosowaniu przełożony kościelny musi mieć na uwadze zarówno dobro domniemanych ofiar i ich bliskich, jak i prawa oskarżonego